{"id":13163,"date":"2023-07-05T14:12:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-05T18:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ccli.ubc.ca\/?post_type=resource&#038;p=13163"},"modified":"2023-08-24T14:14:33","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T18:14:33","slug":"emperors-new-climate-scenarios-a-warning-for-financial-services","status":"publish","type":"resource","link":"https:\/\/ccli.ubc.ca\/fr\/resource\/emperors-new-climate-scenarios-a-warning-for-financial-services\/","title":{"rendered":"Emperor\u2019s New Climate Scenarios \u2013 a warning for financial services"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La mod\u00e9lisation de sc\u00e9narios est un \u00e9l\u00e9ment important de la bo\u00eete \u00e0 outils de gestion des risques actuariels. Dans le contexte du changement climatique, la mod\u00e9lisation de sc\u00e9narios permet aux institutions financi\u00e8res et aux organismes de r\u00e9glementation d&rsquo;\u00e9tudier l&rsquo;impact de diff\u00e9rents futurs climatiques, ce qui est important compte tenu des d\u00e9fis auxquels nous sommes confront\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L&rsquo;Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) s&rsquo;est associ\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019University of Exeter pour produire ce document d\u00e9montrant comment une compr\u00e9hension plus approfondie des changements climatiques, y compris des points de basculement, peut am\u00e9liorer la mod\u00e9lisation des sc\u00e9narios climatiques des services financiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce raport, les auteurs utilisent des principes actuariels pour examiner les limites et les hypoth\u00e8ses li\u00e9es aux pratiques de mod\u00e9lisation des sc\u00e9narios des changements climatiques dans les services financiers, en se concentrant sur les sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9chauffement de 3\u02daC ou plus dans le monde chaud. Ils d\u00e9montrent que les techniques actuelles excluent un grand nombre des impacts les plus graves que nous pouvons attendre des changements climatiques, tels que les points de basculement et les impacts de second ordre &#8211; ils n&rsquo;existent tout simplement pas dans les mod\u00e8les, ce qui signifie que les mod\u00e8les sous-estiment le niveau de risque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Principales conclusions :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De nombreux mod\u00e8les de sc\u00e9narios climatiques utilis\u00e9s dans les services financiers sous-estiment consid\u00e9rablement le risque climatique.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les budgets carbone peuvent \u00eatre moins importants que pr\u00e9vu et les risques peuvent se d\u00e9velopper plus rapidement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les sc\u00e9narios r\u00e9glementaires introduisent de la coh\u00e9rence mais aussi le risque d&rsquo;une pens\u00e9e de groupe, les r\u00e9sultats de l&rsquo;analyse des sc\u00e9narios \u00e9tant pris trop litt\u00e9ralement et hors contexte.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il est n\u00e9cessaire d&rsquo;informer sur les hypoth\u00e8ses qui sous-tendent les mod\u00e8les et leurs limites.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le d\u00e9veloppement de sc\u00e9narios climatiques qualitatifs et quantitatifs r\u00e9alistes est n\u00e9cessaire.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le d\u00e9veloppement de mod\u00e8les est n\u00e9cessaire pour mieux saisir les facteurs de risque, les incertitudes et les impacts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/actuaries.org.uk\/media\/qeydewmk\/the-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios_ifoa_23.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">t\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>*Cette ressource est en anglais.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":13146,"template":"","resource_type":[28],"topic":[112,103,104,101],"area":[115],"class_list":["post-13163","resource","type-resource","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","topic-mesures-cibles","topic-science-climat","topic-specifique-secteur","topic-vers-carboneutralite","area-international-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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